An Opportunity In Its Infancy – But, Even Conservatively, Poised to Drive Big Marginal Growth
Of the $383 billion customers will spend this year within the five major IT segments noted above, $16.2 billion – or a mere 4% – will be consumed as cloud services. By 2012, customer spending on IT cloud services will grow almost threefold, to $42 billion.By 2012 – based on a conservative forecasting approach (see “fine print” below) – customer spending on IT cloud services will grow almost threefold, to $42 billion, accounting for 9% of customer spending.

What does that mean? On one level, one could argue that – in spite of the all the buzz about Cloud Computing and Cloud Services – this model will not even crack 10% of IT spending four years from now. And therefore, one could reasonably ask: why all the fuss?

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One reason IT suppliers are sharpening their focus on the “cloud” model is its growth trajectory, which – at 27% CAGR – is over five times the growth rate of the traditional, on-premise IT delivery/consumption model. Spending on IT cloud services is growing at over five timesthe rate of traditional, on-premise IT.As noted in our recent user survey, this rapid growth is being driven by the ease and speed with which users can adopt these offerings, as well as the cloud model’s economic benefits (for users and suppliers alike) – which will have even greater resonance in the current economic crisis.
Even more striking than this high growth rate, is the contribution cloud offerings’ growth will soon make to the IT market’s overall growth. By 2012 – even at only 9% of user spending – cloud services growth will account for fully 25% of the industry’s year-over-year growth in these five major segments. In 2013, if the same growth trajectories continue, IT cloud services growth will generate about one-third of the industry’s net new growth in these segments.

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[NOTE: Minor data typo corrected 01Apr09. The main message - that Cloud IT growth will account for 25% of overall growth - remains unchanged.]
The implication for IT suppliers is clear: during the next several years, IT suppliers must position IT suppliers must position as leaders in IT cloud services or forfeit an ever-expanding portion of the industry’s growth.themselves as leaders in IT cloud services or forfeit an ever-expanding portion of the industry’s growth. Cloud services’ accelerating impact on IT industry growth is consistent with the key insight from our cloud services user survey data: that IT cloud services are at a “crossing the chasm” moment, the point at which suppliers must step up their commitment to the new technology or model, and the point at which failure to do so starts to exact harsher penalties on supplier performance.
Applications Are Leading the Way – and Will Continue To Do So
Among the five enterprise IT segments we analyzed, Business Applications dominate cloud services spending, both in 2008 (57%) and in 2012 (52%).

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This should not be very surprising: Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is the most mature and widely deployed form of IT cloud services, in contrast to the more nascent cloud infrastructure offerings. And Business Applications – in which, for this forecast, we include Collaboration offerings - have consistently been the largest portion of the SaaS market.